On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli airstrikes hit Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, the waterway carrying 20% of the world’s oil and LNG, effectively stalled. For steel buyers across the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, one question immediately follows: how bad does this get for our supply chain?

What happened in the first 72 hours

Brent crude surged 10 to 13% to above $82 per barrel. Freight costs on China-Turkey steel routes jumped 15 to 20% immediately as carriers began pricing in war-risk premiums. Jebel Ali in Dubai paused container operations. Ports in Bahrain closed. Iranian steel billet shipments to Asia stalled (Eurometal, 2026). Buyers with material in transit to Gulf destinations are already dealing with real delays, not projections.

What the market is currently pricing

Goldman Sachs’ oil research team outlined the base case consensus: a disruption lasting roughly four weeks (Fortune, 2026). In that scenario, freight rates spike then gradually normalize, oil stays elevated but manageable, and Gulf steel buyers rush to restock locally available inventory, pushing regional prices up in the short term. If the conflict extends beyond four weeks and Hormuz stays effectively closed, energy costs for steel producers rise globally, and freight reprices across all routes, not just Middle East ones (Kpler, 2026).

What should steel buyers do right now

If you’re sourcing Gulf projects, build delivery buffer into your timeline immediately. Material already in-region is commanding a premium and that will continue. If you have shipments in transit, contact your freight forwarder today about alternative routing options. For buyers outside the region, the direct supply disruption is limited for now but watch war-risk insurance premiums carefully. Carriers price those into rates across broader Asia routes even for shipments nowhere near the Strait of Hormuz.

The steel market will not collapse through this conflict. But it will be more expensive and less predictable until the situation resolves. Plan your procurement around that reality, not around the assumption that things will normalize on a fixed schedule.

References:

Eurometal. (2026, March 3). Escalation in Gulf disrupts shipping, steel may be impacted. https://eurometal.net/escalation-in-gulf-disrupts-shipping-steel-may-be-impacted-if-war-continues/

Lichtenberg, N. (2026, March 3). Why the stock market thinks the Iran war will last 4 weeks, according to Goldman’s head of oil research. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2026/03/03/how-long-will-iran-war-last-stock-market-oil-barrel-price-goldman-sachs/

Kpler. (2026, March 1). US-Iran conflict: Strait of Hormuz crisis reshapes global oil markets. https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-iran-conflict-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-reshapes-global-oil-markets